Turkey's End-of-Year Export Review for 2022

The balance between exports and imports is crucial for every nation, notwithstanding ongoing global changes, discussions, and political issues. The study of export statistics helps to identify a nation's level of development. Plans that show the monetary behavior of nations are annual development plans and initiatives. What has Turkey decided for 2022, then? How can the export performance of Turkey be assessed in 2022?

According to the general trade system, exports increased by 18.2% in the January-August period of 2022 compared to the same period of the previous year and reached 165 billion 608 million dollars. When this data is considered throughout the period, it reveals a very promising result. Aiming to increase exports in direct proportion to the increase in production, Turkey continues to develop day by day. There is a specific improvement in exports in every field from raw material production to processed products, from fruits and vegetables to automotive.

Every Month Export Score Increased Compared to the Previous Month

Turkish exporters keep repeating that they believe the annual goal will be attained before the year ends. However, there are rumors that business leaders are reevaluating their goals as new orders decline amid indications of a worldwide slowdown and inflationary pressure. Even though official sources have not yet released the 2022 report, it is impossible to avoid seeing developments by glancing at the monthly evaluations.

Providing information about export figures, Minister Muş stated that exports continued to gain momentum in the first 10 months of this year. He also stated that it reached the highest monthly export value in October, as it does every month. Turkey's exports gained more momentum each month compared to the previous month. Exports seem to continue this upward trend at the end of 2022.

Exporters managed to reach record sales every month and in 21 of the previous 23 months up through August of this year. In summary, exports have increased significantly during the previous two years as well as in 2022.

Turkey's Export Targets and Achievements in 2022

The government and experts anticipate that exports, which totaled $225.4 billion at the end of 2021, will rise to $250 billion this year. As of July, according to TİM Chairman Mustafa Gültepe, rolling 12-month exports were more than 248 billion dollars.

Furthermore, Gültepe stated: 

"At this moment, we perceive that we will exceed our annual export objective of $250 billion in 2022 and leave behind a very important milestone." 

The target of 250 billion dollars was also highlighted by President Erdogan at most meetings and summits. This target was left behind when we look at Turkey's export values. The increase in export figures before the end of 2022 reveals that Turkey has gone beyond its targets.

Reminding that national pride Togg took off the first mass production models on Republic Day, Muş also talked about the pride and happiness they felt. In light of all these comments, this situation also reveals that Turkey's success in export-oriented production continues comprehensively.

According to the latest export orders index, exports in nations like Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, and China are predicted to slow down, and the foreign trade imbalance between the Eurozone and the EU hit a record high in August. On the other hand, since the epidemic started, energy prices have caused a massive wave of inflation around the world. Turkey has attained a high level of integration with the global economy and commerce. Despite being negatively impacted by these global events, Turkey continues to boost its industrial production.

In conclusion, Minister Muş also drew attention to Turkey's position amid these global troubles. The global political and economic crises in the world slowed down Turkey's production flow. Yet, it did not stop and the visible development was reflected in Turkey's exports.

Global Demand in the 2022-2035 Period

Although the end of 2022 export evaluation has not yet been released, the Turkish Exporters' Assembly's 2022 Export Report contains expectations and intentions. Particularly, there are sectoral analyzes that can be realized between 2022-2035.

The regressions based on the monthly export data for the years 2010–2021 have been taken into account while computing the export prediction in the sectoral breakdown of Turkey. Based on this analysis, a sectoral breakdown of Turkey's exports in the future was calculated. 

The analysis predicts that in the years 2022 to 2035, the "Automotive Industry" will come out on top, followed by the "Chemical Substances and Products" sector. The "Steel" industry is anticipated to come in third, followed by the "Apparel and Apparel" sector in fourth place. Finally, the "Electricity and Electronics" sector will come in fifth.

Top 10 Sectors in Global Demand

According to this report, in the 2022-2035 period, the top 10 sectors that are important in global demand and the top 10 sectors in Turkey's exports take place. The sectors that are expected to come to the fore in Turkey's export ranking are as follows:

1. Automotive Industry
2. Chemical Substances and Products
3. Steel
4. Ready-to-Wear and Apparel
5. Electricity and Electronics
6. Ferrous and Non-Ferrous Metals
7. Textile and Raw Materials
8. Cereals, Pulses, Oilseeds, and Products
9. Machinery and Parts
10. Jewelry

Sectors Expected to Increase in Demand

In addition to these sectors, the ranking of the sectors that are expected to increase in global demand is given as follows:

1. Chemical Substances and Products
2. Electricity and Electronics
3. Automotive Industry
4. Machinery and Parts
5. Jewelry
6. Cereals, Pulses, Oilseeds, and Products
7. Ferrous and Non-Ferrous Metals
8. Mining Products
9. Furniture, Paper, and Forest Products

When we examine these two lists, besides the differences in the rankings, the Furniture Group and Mining Products are included in the global demand list. When we examine Turkey's 2022 exports according to this demand list, there is a considerable export rate in both mining products and furniture, paper, and forestry products.

To give an example, Turkey's exports of furniture, paper, and forestry products increased by 22.6 percent in the 9 months year over year. They reached 6.2 billion dollars. Similarly, there is an increase in mining products. Mining product exports increased by 13.8 percent in the first 9 months of this year compared to the same period in 2021. They reached 4 billion 988 million 864 thousand dollars. In short, Turkey continues its production responding to global demand in terms of foreign markets. In this way, it is noticed by importers as it operates in many sectors.

The 2022 export evaluation report has not been published yet. However, despite the effects of the global crisis, Turkey has exceeded its expectations and targets regarding the supply-demand balance.